Friday, 28 August 2009

The Met Office Does Its Bit for Global Warming

Ah the delicious irony - the Met Office supercomputer, dedicated to mapping global warming, emits 12,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year, making the Met Office building one of the most globe-warming (if you buy into the anthropogenic model) in the country. What should also be pointed out is that, so far, the Met Office supercomputer has proved spectacularly useless, as weather forecasting in this couuntry remains the bad joke it's always been - it's just that now it's an incredibly expensive and polluting bad joke. It hardly bears thinking about that the calculations of this mighty mathematical engine are a key element in the climate change projections that are driving government policies around the world. The Met Office and its mighty supercomputer have managed to call the last three summers wrongly, and have a record on forecasting tomorrow's weather that is little better than hanging up a bit of seaweed. Why should they be any more reliable on climate change?

154 comments:

  1. Bring back Suzanne Charlton! She only emitted a mere 3000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year and always got the weather spot on.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Excellent - a sort of Heisenbergian observer effect. By measuring climate change we cause it.

    Usually at this point somebody comes along and says "Don't you know the difference between weather and climate?"

    Because of course while humans can't be expected to make accurate predictions about this afternoon's rain, scientists are NEVER WRONG about huge, fanstastically complex mega-projections.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Why can't they just look out the window like everyone else? Computers are only as good as the assumptions programmed into them. My understanding - from, admittedly, a newspaper - is that the Met Office computers were programmed with some pretty hardcore assumptions about global warming whereas the ones in other countries take a more open-minded view. Maybe this has something to do with the guff about barbecue summers.

    This site is one I've jolly useful for short-term stuff as you can really see what is coming your way in the next few hours.

    ReplyDelete
  4. It's reasonably well-known, Nige, that short-term predicting and long-term predicting are very different beasts. Short-term prediction is much harder to do and get right, because you have a smaller data set and more limited trend lines, as well as being more vulnerable to a sudden shift in conditions. Long-term predictions are certainly not 100% accurate, but they tend to hold up pretty well. Please don't confuse the two. Short-term inaccuracy doesn't affect the bigger picture, and doesn't invalidate what science is telling us. You may not wish to agree with the science of climate change, but you need a much better argument than inaccurate short-term weather predictions.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Brit, any mathematician or statistician will tell you that there is a difference between a ahort-term prediction and assessing a long-term trend. Let me make it simple for you: predict the outcome of a single coin toss. You have a roughly 50% chance of being right. Now, predict the trend of heads versus tails over a series of 1000 coin tosses. You actually have a rather higher likelihood of getting this right, and within a fairly small margin of error. Please, think through the arguments, and the mathematical reality of the situation.

    ReplyDelete
  6. "Brit, any mathematician or statistician will tell you that there is a difference between a ahort-term prediction and assessing a long-term trend." Balls: most mathematicians know nothing about the topic.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Dearieme - I'd suggest that you need to learn something about mathematics, and mathematical education, if it wouldn't take up too much of your time. Probability theory is a major mathematical concern, and no mathematician worth his or her salt would be ignorant of it. Now, would you like to try offering an argument, rather than ignorance and abuse?

    ReplyDelete
  8. sounds like this probability theory thing works in the same way that horoscopes work - throw out enough poo that at least some of it is bound to stick. Doesn't sound very scientific at all.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Worm, probability theory deals with possible outcomes,and their likelihood, not random guesswork. It explains, among other things, why there's a difference between predicting a one-time or short-term event, and predicting a longer trend. Throwing stuff and hoping it sticks is the position you end up in when you don't analyze probability. No-one claims that predictions are 100% accurate - but it is clear that longterm trends are far more predictable than short-term events - and probability theory illustrates that mathematically. It's anything but throwing stuff at the wall and hoping.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Bugger this. I came to make some small insignificant point but I feel like I've walked into a bar fight.

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  11. My dear anon, it was extremely well informed abuse.

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  12. What intrigues me is this '1 tip of a flat belly' on that excellent link Mark sent...

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  13. Oh I do wish I knew what Anonymous thinks about atheism versus religion and also the war in Iraq, preferably in laborious detail.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Anonymous, don't bother arguing math or science with this lot. They lack the intellectual equipment to respond with anything besides ridicule. Can't you hear their foppish snorting in the background?

    And Brit -- I'm a Roman Catholic and I fought in Iraq (and Afghanistan). You?

    ReplyDelete
  15. Me? I'm a Roman Catholic too. Lapsed a bit admittedly.

    In the great Blog Wars of 2003-2009 I fought on the side of America in Iraq but, after some initial success, I retreated into ill-tempered neutrality. I supported Dawkins in his early anti-Creationist battles but switched sides, Italian-style, when I realised the rottenness at the core of the atheist revolution. In the killing fields of Anthropogenic Global Warming I acted first as freelance double agent and subsequently joined a small guerilla sect sniping at both the Axis and Allies. Perhaps my greatest victory came against the Transhumanists, whose invading force I singlehandly routed at Thought Experiments in 2008. But my great nemesis has undoubtedly been the 9/11 Conspiracy Theorists, whom I have fought with vigour across several blogs, now and again thinking myself victorious but alas, like the Taleban, Iraqi terrorist insurgents and people who want to argue math and science on Nigeness when all we want is a nice quiet place in which to snort foppishly, they keep popping up.

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  16. Official government measurements show that the world’s temperature has cooled a bit since reaching its most recent peak in 1998.

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  17. Apropos of nothing: I saw my first nuthatch today, Nige, hanging from the bird feeder I've hung in the back garden. Never been into the twitching until I started to read this blog and now I'm blowing a fiver a month on Bill Oddie's bird mix.

    ReplyDelete
  18. I imagine that must tickle when you snort it, Dick

    ReplyDelete
  19. That Bill Oddie - the nerve - you'd have thought he'd let his old mate Dick have his bird mix for free... Well done with the nuthatch though - last one I saw was a while back when I was taking a pee in a hedgerow and idly staring into space, as you do - and there was a nutchatch working its way up a tree trunk just 6ft away, quite oblivious of my peeing presence - as it says in that movie, I cherish these moments...

    ReplyDelete
  20. I bet it was the taxpayer who stumped up the 30 million?

    ReplyDelete
  21. "the mathematical reality of the situation"

    Sinister with a capital SS.

    Since when Anon has Math been a science? I always thought it to be a language.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Anon's post is boggling ignorant. He's completely bollixed up the idea of independence and the difference between risk and uncertainty.

    If you flip a coin, then I know that the odds of getting heads are 1:2. It doesn't matter what comes up; in this simple, closed system the odds are exact. If you flip one thousand coins, the odds are the same each time. If you have a fair coin, it doesn't matter that you've flipped heads 999 times, you've still got exacts odds of 1:2 and the thousandths flip because flips are independent.

    Neither climate nor weather are independent of what's come before. The difference between climate and weather is that weather is relatively simple and can be expressed in terms of risk. Climate is complicated and complication is uncertain, we don't know what the odds are. Our predictions of the weather tomorrow are much more certain, our predictions of the climate over the next 100 years are largely uncertain.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Point well made David - but if weather is 'relatively simple' and the Met Office still gets it wrong half the time, that's yet more reason to be worried about what that flippin megacomputer's going to come up with...

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