Thursday, 10 November 2016

Concluding unscientific postscript

Next time there's a big vote, will the pollsters and pundits be taken as seriously as ever, despite their laughably bad record? They have now got three big ones in a row completely wrong: the 2015 general election, Brexit and Trump. Apart (perhaps) from the 2010 general election fudge, they haven't got anything right since Blair's easily predictable victories - and before that they called the 1992 election (which John Major won with the biggest vote in British electoral history) completely wrong.
There's a pattern here, isn't there? A tendency to over-represent the more leftist/ politically correct/ status quo-ist opinion. I don't suppose this is intentional, but something is clearly going very wrong, and unless they fix it the pollsters and pundits have surely forfeited any right to be taken seriously next time.
 But they will be, we may be sure of that.

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